Correctmacrohigh confidence
U.S. Will Avoid Recession Through 2024
Projection
The United States will not experience two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2024.
Rationale
Consumer balance sheets remain strong, labor market is cooling but not collapsing, and Fed policy will ease before recession hits. Soft landing is achievable.
Projection Window
100% elapsed
Start
Jan 1, 2024
End
Dec 31, 2024
Evidence
Correct
Outcome
GDPRecessionU.S. Economy
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