Fed Will Cut Rates by 50bps in Q2 2025
The Federal Reserve will reduce the federal funds rate by 50 basis points between April and June 2025.

Our most comprehensive set of predictions for the year. Track every call from announcement to outcome.
The Federal Reserve will reduce the federal funds rate by 50 basis points between April and June 2025.

Oil prices will reach $85 per barrel by August 2025 despite current weakness.

The Biden administration will extend advanced AI chip export restrictions covering 8 countries - exceeding our projection. The restrictions target advanced AI chips and manufacturing equipment, validating our thesis about escalating technology competition.

The European Central Bank will reduce rates by a full percentage point between January and June 2025.

Chinese authorities will unveil a stimulus package exceeding $2 trillion USD equivalent by Q2 2025.

Bitcoin will trade above $150,000 before December 31, 2025.

The world will add over 500 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity in 2025, a new record.

The United States will not experience two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2024.

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